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Old 06-30-2015
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TonyfromOz TonyfromOz is offline
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Default Are They Coming For Your Cars?

They say that in the company of good friends, there are three things you shouldn't talk about, and they are religion, sex and politics, but I'm willing to go out on a limb here, but it's only to make a point.

As I mentioned in the earlier Thread, I was cruising all the images from The Power Tour, seeing all those wonderful cars from the past that are now part of our heritage.

As some of you may know, I blog about, of all things, electrical power generation, and how Renewable Power fails so utterly in their attempt to replace traditional power generation sources, coal fired power, and all of this relates to the emissions of Greenhouse Gases, and here the largest of them is Carbon Dioxide. (CO2)

They tell us that we need to drastically lower those emissions of CO2.

Now while electrical power generation is by far the largest emitter of CO2, at around 40% of all emissions, the second largest emitter is the Transportation Sector at around 32% of the total.

So, while you think that any reduction should be mainly in that largest sector, electrical power generation, not many would realise that any prospective lowering of emissions must be achieved across all sectors of emissions, and therefore, there should be the equivalent reduction in that Transportation Sector, and here the emissions of greenhouse gases, (CO2 also the largest here) stem from the burning of gasoline used to power our vehicles.

The current call from the EPA is that there needs to be a 28% reduction is these CO2 emissions, and that's what America will be taking to the upcoming UNFCCC Climate Change Conference in Paris later this year in December. So that's across the board, a 28% reduction from the electrical power generation sector, a 28% reduction from Industry, and, by extrapolation, a 28% reduction in that Transportation Sector.

See the point here?

What that effectively means, besides making cars etc more fuel efficient, in reality, it means literally taking 28% of all transportation out of the mix, or, off the roads, because fuel efficiency cannot make up even a fraction of that change.

So then, Transportation. What makes up Transportation then?

The largest sources of transportation greenhouse gases in 2013 were passenger cars (42.7 percent), freight trucks (22.1 percent), light duty trucks, which include sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, and minivans (18.0 percent), commercial aircraft (6.2 percent), rail (2.6 percent), pipelines (2.6 percent), and ships and boats (2.2 percent). (This is from page 28 of the document linked to below)

Note here that the largest concentration is passenger vehicles and pickup trucks/SUV's which make up almost 61% of the total, in other words the daily drivers of every person.

Now, over the years, the electrical power generation sector especially, and to a slightly lesser extent Industry, well, those two have decreased their emissions, power generation most markedly.

However, this Transportation Sector, despite all the advances in modern cars trucks etc, well that sector has only increased its emissions, and in fact, from 1990 till 2013, those emissions have increased by 19%, and in the recent years have bugun to stabilise, although still increasing slightly.

So, even with the advances made with new vehicles, emissions in this sector are problematic.

To reduce them by the hoped for 28% is in effect to take it back earlier even than that target year of 1990.

Efficiencies have done very little, so reductions won't come from further efficiencies. So, the only realistic way to reduce those emissions is to in effect, actually remove 28% of vehicles from use.

Hey, that's virtually one vehicle in three being removed from the roads.

If you seriously think that is going to happen, that American will actually accept this, then you've got rocks in your head.

I cannot envisage any politician of any flavour even suggesting that a policy of this nature would be introduced. It would be political suicide. They'd be thrown out of office so quickly, they'd wonder what just happened then.

If a policy like this does go through, and that'll be the day, then vehicles like those you can see just scrolling through those images from The Power Tour will be a thing of the past.

Imagine a Power Tour with Prius's, other Hybrids, and maybe the occasional Tesla that only the rich could afford. Power Tours would be done in stages of less than a hundred miles from one battery charging point to the next. How boring would that be. They could park those old vehicles along the route of the Tour so people could see what their HERITAGE once looked like as they drove by.

This is what the people we have voted for have in store for us. All of this for the manufactured CO2 emissions problem, but don't get me on that soapbox.

Now I've said my piece on this matter, go and add up those percentages for the makeup of that Transportation Sector. The total only comes to 96.4%. Hey, what happened to the other 3.6%?

Don't blame me. They are the figures taken directly from the EPA's own document shown at this link, and it's pdf document of 34 pages of dull and boring text, so you'll need a reader of one type or another. Oh, and this is just one document of many of those documents, amounting to, wait for it, more than a thousand pages in all.

And hey, if we all are forced to move to electric vehicles, where do they expect to get the electrical power from to charge all those batteries?

Again, sorry to mention all this, but looking at all those wonderful old cars from The Power Tour got me to thinking how much they might be going to take away from us.


"Old man look at my life, I'm a lot like you were."------Neil Young.
Old 07-01-2015
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abnot abnot is offline
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Default Re: Are They Coming For Your Cars?

I saw a battery powered car (a concept car) out accelerate a gas powered hot rod due to the fact an electric motor is at full rotation immediately so less lag at the initial start.

That is, you can have some quick cars even when electric if we can get to the next technology batteries -- still a tough engineering challenge.
Old 07-01-2015
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TonyfromOz TonyfromOz is offline
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Default Re: Are They Coming For Your Cars?

Al says here: (and I have made bold the relevant part here)
Quote: the next technology batteries -- still a tough engineering challenge.
I couldn't agree more.

I want you to think for a minute about battery powered electric cars, and as you think about it, scroll through the images for The Power Tour, any one of them over the many years the Tour has been running.

As you look at all those wonderful old cars, think of the time when they were all new on the roads. Those cars date back to the 60's and 70's, and some even older, so, they are 40 and 50 years old and even older.

Now scroll forwards and think of the electric cars. By far the largest cost for those cars is the battery pack, and having trained and worked in the electrical trade now for all those years, trust me on this, batteries will improve, perhaps, but not on the scale required here. They must be continually charged and have a limited life span, the number of charges they can hold, the full cycle, from fully charged to flat, and then fully charged again.

The best of those batteries might last 7 years, some perhaps even ten years with careful use, and then you'll need a new battery pack.

As much as batteries have, (and might do into the future) improved, they have never become cheaper. They have always become more expensive.

So, with a battery car, the largest expense is that battery pack, and here I'm talking many thousands of dollars.

If they require new battery packs every seven or perhaps even out to ten years in the future, then that is a big expense.

Now, again look at those images from the Power Tour of those 40 to 50 year old cars, still running strongly, albeit restored somewhat.

Scroll forwards 40 to 50 years from now, and think how many electric cars which are new today will still be operational after that time. There won't be any of them. It is just too uneconomical to continue replacing those battery packs in them, no matter how much battery technology improves.

You hear rumour about how there's always some new battery technology just around the corner. True, they have improved, but each improvement is only marginal, and comes with a pretty high cost. There will never be a quantum leap forward in technology resulting in a quantum level cheaper battery.

They can make battery cars look as good as conventional cars, and even out perform them, but the Achilles Heel will always be those batteries, and their cost.

They will only ever be a niche market, and if by chance we are forced into that direction, you will then have the problem of the disposal of those batteries at the end of their life, and they are extremely toxic.

Even hybrids are not the way to go if they want to cease the use of all fossil fuels altogether.


"Old man look at my life, I'm a lot like you were."------Neil Young.

Last edited by TonyfromOz; 07-01-2015 at 08:12 PM. Reason: Added Context
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